Increased Transmission Predictions
Researchers are now beginning to look to the future to determine what is coming in terms of increased Malaria transmission. As of 2010, it was estimated that 342 million people were exposed to very high transmission risks (9). It is now believed that there will be a 16-28% overall increase in transmission rate by 2100 (21), adding up to another 10 million people facing extreme transmission conditions.
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| Estimated number of months suitable for Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission, and change in person-months of exposure by country at present and by 2100 (21) - Tanser et. al. 2003 |
The smaller maps (in red) in the figure above show the increases in affected areas within Africa, compared to the current conditions (in green), using several modeling parameters. Dark red in the smaller maps shows a greater than 100% increase in transmission rate by 2100 (21). Malaria flourishes in warm, humid climates, so the predicted increases in temperature and increased rainfall make for perfect conditions for this increased transmission.
Political and Economic Implications
Current predictions estimate that the strongest effects of
temperature will impact the areas where malaria is most difficult to control:
the poorest and most vulnerable regions (12). Underdeveloped nations have less effective health care systems, allowing for less prevention and treatment. Less public health regulation means water is more likely to be contaminated, and more breeding grounds for mosquitoes are available, due to stagnant wells and cisterns (14).
Economically, Malaria has significant impacts as well. A major loss in GDP is caused by lack of tourism. Tourists from wealthier nations choose not to travel to areas of high Malarial transmission, causing large economic losses (17). In addition, sick children miss school and infected adults are unable to work. This decreases productivity, further limiting economic growth (17). These losses are predicted to continue, as the spread of Malaria continues and increases.
Great explanation of the figure. And I agree with your prediction. Is there any danger of malaria coming across the ocean? Is it already in the Americas?
ReplyDeleteThat is a scary prediction that by 2100 there will be an increase of up to 28% in transmission rate which is another 10 million people with malaria conditions. Is there any data or references about any kind of malaria vaccine presence in Sub-Saharan Africa?
ReplyDeleteI like the way you organized your blog and the detailed information about relationship between malaria and climate change. But I would suggest that you can put more information about impacts of malaria on other parts, such as world's economies or biodiversity, and its future.
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